| Part I - ENF Future PV Technologies Review – Setting the Scene |
8 |
| 1. Introduction |
8 |
| 2. Forces shaping the success/price of a PV technology |
9 |
| 2.1 Technological Advantage |
9 |
| 2.2 Drive for Higher Efficiency or Lower Cost |
12 |
| 2.3 From Lab to Field |
12 |
| 2.4 Do standard test conditions paint an accurate picture? |
13 |
| 2.5 Battle to Drive Costs Down – View from "the engine room" |
18 |
| 3. Impact of "Game Playing" on the PV industry |
20 |
| 3.1 Manufacturers and Governments/Regulators |
20 |
| 3.2 Manufacturers and Suppliers |
22 |
| 3.3 Manufacturers and their Competitors |
23 |
| 3.4 Manufacturers and their Customers |
25 |
| 4. - The Risks of the Business – (Chaos Theory) |
26 |
| 4.1 Risks facing all industries |
26 |
| 4.2 Risks particular to the solar PV industry |
27 |
| 4.3 Risks particular to a specific solar PV technology |
28 |
| 4.4 Risks specific to the particular commercial enterprise |
31 |
| 4.5 Risk Summary |
31 |
| 5. What is Characterising the Solar PV Industry Today |
33 |
| Part II - Review of Critical Materials |
36 |
| 1. General Introduction |
36 |
| 2. Polysilicon |
36 |
| 2.1 Introduction |
36 |
| 2.2 Established Silicon Refining Technologies for polysilicon |
37 |
| 2.2.1 Siemens CVD Reactor |
37 |
| 2.2.2 Fluidized Bed Reactor |
38 |
| 2.2.3 Mono-silane Process |
40 |
| 2.3 Emerging Scene of Silicon Refining Technologies for polysilicon |
40 |
| 2.3.1 Modified Siemens CVD Reactor |
41 |
| 2.3.2 Vapour-to-Liquid Deposition Reactor |
42 |
| 2.3.3 Metallurgical Process |
44 |
| 2.3.4 Other Refining Technologies |
45 |
| 2.3.4.1 Other Refining Technologies being driven by larger players |
45 |
| 2.3.4.2 Other Refining Technologies being driven by smaller players |
46 |
| 2.4 Implications for the solar PV industry |
47 |
| 3. Indium |
49 |
| 3.1 General Introduction |
49 |
| 3.2 Forces that will determine the market price of indium |
49 |
| 3.2.1 Abundance of indium in the Earth's crust |
49 |
| 3.2.2 Reserves of economically accessible indium |
49 |
| 3.2.3 Nature of the indium industry |
51 |
| 3.2.4 Indium processing associated with the zinc mining industry |
52 |
| 3.2.5 Recycling indium from general waste |
53 |
| 3.2.6 Extraction of indium from other mineral mining operations and old mining sites |
55 |
| 3.2.7 Efficiency gains in material use from within the LCD/TV and CIGS PV industries |
55 |
| 3.2.8 Emergence of alternatives to indium in the LCD/TV industry |
55 |
| 3.2.9 Impact of Regulation on the supply of indium |
56 |
| 3.2.10 Disruptive forces influencing the short term market price of indium |
57 |
| 3.3 Market Prices and Trends |
57 |
| 3.3.1 Ten-year Price Track |
57 |
| 3.3.2 Long-term price and availability of indium |
58 |
| 3.4 Indium Suppliers |
59 |
| 4. Tellurium |
60 |
| 4.1 General Introduction |
60 |
| 4.2 Forces Determining the Price of tellurium |
60 |
| 4.2.1 Abundance in the Earth's crust |
60 |
| 4.2.2 Production of tellurium |
60 |
| 4.2.3 Nature of the Tellurium Industry |
61 |
| 4.2.4 Supply from Recycling |
61 |
| 4.2.5 Competing Applications |
61 |
| 4.2.6 Solar PV Application |
61 |
| 4.2.7 Commodity Speculation |
61 |
| 4.3 Market Prices and trends |
62 |
| 4.4 Tellurium suppliers |
62 |
| 5. Gallium |
63 |
| 5.1 General Introduction |
63 |
| 5.2 Forces determining the price of gallium |
63 |
| 5.2.1 Abundance of gallium in the Earth's crust |
63 |
| 5.2.2 Production of gallium |
63 |
| 5.2.3 Supply from recycling |
63 |
| 5.2.4 Competing applications |
63 |
| 5.3 Market prices and trends |
64 |
| 5.4 Gallium Suppliers |
64 |
| 6. Germanium |
65 |
| 6.1 General Introduction |
65 |
| 6.2 Forces determining the price of germanium |
65 |
| 6.2.1 Abundance of germanium in the Earth's crust |
65 |
| 6.2.2 Production of germanium |
65 |
| 6.2.3 Supply from recycling |
66 |
| 6.2.4 Competing Applications |
66 |
| 6.3 Market prices and trends |
66 |
| 6.4 Germanium Suppliers |
67 |
| 7. Molybdenum |
68 |
| 7.1 General introduction |
68 |
| 7.2 Forces determining the price of molybdenum |
68 |
| 7.2.1 Abundance of molybdenum in the Earth's crust |
68 |
| 7.2.2 Production of molybdenum |
68 |
| 7.2.3 Supply from recycling |
68 |
| 7.2.4 Competing Applications |
68 |
| 7.3 Market Prices and trends |
69 |
| 7.4 Molybdenum Suppliers |
69 |
| 8. Cadmium |
70 |
| 8.1 Cadmium Suppliers |
70 |
| 9. Pastes |
71 |
| 10. Films |
73 |
| 11. Light Wavelength Conversion Films |
74 |
| 11.1 Europium |
74 |
| 11.2 Mentarix |
74 |
| 11.3 Covalent Solar |
74 |
| Part III – Factory Processes for PV Technologies |
77 |
| 1. Introduction |
77 |
| 2. Bulk-silicon PV technologies |
77 |
| 2.1 Ingot production |
77 |
| 2.2 Cell production |
78 |
| 2.3 Panel Production |
83 |
| 3. Thin Film Amorphous Silicon(a-Si) Technology |
86 |
| 4. Thin Film - CIS/CIGS Technology |
92 |
| 5. Summary of semiconductor deposition technologies |
94 |
| 5.1. Liquid Phase Epitaxy (LPE) |
94 |
| 5.2 Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) |
96 |
| 5.2.1 Atomic Layer CVD (AL-CVD) |
96 |
| 5.2.2 Atmospheric Pressure CVD (APCVD) |
96 |
| 5.2.3 Low Pressure CVD (LPCVD) |
96 |
| 5.2.4 Rapid Thermal CVD (RTCVD) |
97 |
| 5.2.5 Plasma Enhanced CVD (PECVD) |
97 |
| 5.2.6 Electron Cyclotron Resonance CVD (ECRCVD) |
98 |
| 5.2.7 Hot-Wire CVD (HWCVD) |
99 |
| 5.2.8 MetalOrganic CVD (MOCVD) |
100 |
| 5.3 Molecular Beam Epitaxy |
102 |
| 5.4 Physical Vapour Deposition (PVD) |
102 |
| 5.4.1 Plasma PVD (Sputtering) |
102 |
| 5.4.2 Thermal Evaporation |
104 |
| 6. Summary of "printing" deposition technologies |
106 |
| 6.1 Introduction |
106 |
| 6.2 Screen Printing |
106 |
| 6.3 Inkjet Printing |
107 |
| 7. Other Material Deposition Technologies |
109 |
| 7.1 Chemical Bath Deposition |
109 |
| Part IV – Factual Survey of PV Technologies |
111 |
| 0. Introduction |
111 |
| 1. Mono-Silicon – Benchmark Mono-Silicon Sawn Wafer Technology |
114 |
| 1.1 Mono-Silicon - Thinner Silicon Wafers |
118 |
| 1.2 Mono-Silicon - Back-Contact SunPower Technology |
122 |
| 1.3 Sanyo HIT Technology |
125 |
| 2. Polycrystalline – Benchmark Silicon Sawn Wafer Technology |
128 |
| 2.1 Edge-defined Film-fed Growth Process (EFG) |
131 |
| 2.2 Polycrystalline – String Ribbon |
135 |
| 2.3 Polycrystalline - Back-Contact EWT Technology |
139 |
| 2.4 Polycrystalline - Silicon Sliver Cells |
143 |
| 2.5 Polycrystalline With Light Capturing Ribbon |
146 |
| 3. Thin Film |
148 |
| 3.1 Thin Film - a-Si Family |
149 |
| 3.1.1 Thin Film - a-Si (Single Junction) |
150 |
| 3.1.2 Thin film - a-Si (Double-junction) |
155 |
| 3.1.3 Thin film - a-Si (Triple-junction) |
158 |
| Annex to Section 3.1 – Consolidated List of a-Si manufacturers |
162 |
| 3.2 Thin film – CIS (Copper Indium diSulphide) Technologies |
163 |
| 3.2.1 Thin film - CIGS (Copper Indium/Gallium diSelenide) |
164 |
| 3.2.2 Thin film – CIGSS (Cu (In Ga) (S,Se)2 ) |
170 |
| 3.2.3 Thin film – CIS (Cu In S2) |
172 |
| 3.2.4 Thin Film - CISCuT (Cu In S2 on Cu-tape) |
174 |
| Annex to Section 3.2 – Consolidated List of CIS technology family manufacturers |
177 |
| 3.3 Thin film - CdTe |
179 |
| 3.4 Thin film - Crystalline Silicon on Glass (CSG) |
186 |
| 4. Very High Performance PV Cells |
192 |
| 4.1 Very High Performance PV Cells - Multi-junction (GaAs) |
193 |
| 4.2 Very High Performance PV Cells - Indium, Gallium, Nitrogen (Full Spectrum) |
199 |
| 5. Concentrator PV Technology |
202 |
| 5.1 Non-Tracking Concentrator PV Technology (or Optionally 1-axis Tracking) |
203 |
| 5.2 1-Axis Tracking Concentrator PV Technology (or Optionally 2-axis) |
209 |
| 5.3 2-Axis Tracking Concentrator PV Technology |
214 |
| 5.4 Combined CPV Electricity and Direct Heating Systems |
232 |
| Annex to CPV Section 5 – Consolidated list of CPV suppliers |
236 |
| 6. Third Generation |
237 |
| 6.1 Third Generation - Dye Sensitised |
239 |
| 6.2 Third Generation - Organic Polymer |
248 |
| 6.3 Third Generation - Quantum dot |
253 |
| 7. Innovative Panel Designs |
257 |
| 7.1 Innovative Panel Designs (Transparent Solar Cell) |
259 |
| 7.2 Innovative Panel Designs (Roof Tiles and Shingles) |
263 |
| 7.3 Combined PV Flat Panel and Thermal Water Heating |
268 |
| 7.4 Innovative Panel Designs (Spherical Solar Cell) |
273 |
| Part V – Solar PV Cell Application Products |
276 |
| 1. Introduction |
276 |
| 2. Solar Applications Product Market |
276 |
| 3. Markets |
277 |
| 4. Technology |
279 |
| 4.1 Solar Cells Only |
279 |
| 4.2 Solar Cells Plus Motor |
280 |
| 4.3 Solar Cells Plus Battery Plus Motor |
281 |
| 4.4 Solar Cells Plus Battery Plus Lights |
283 |
| 4.5 Solar Cells Plus Portable Electronic Device |
284 |
| 4.6 Solar Cells Plus Battery Plus Portable Electronic Device |
284 |
| 4.7 Solar Cells Plus Battery Plus Static Electronic Device |
285 |
| 5. Discussion and Conclusion |
286 |
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